20 January 2011: David Rogers, chief accounting officer - Embedded value (EEV)

Aviva's chief accounting officer talks about his analyst presentation on Enhanced Disclosure EEV.

Transcript:

We currently report on an MCEV basis. That captures the value of our business if we hedge out all the financial risk. But what it means is that we don’t include the expected benefit from the credit-spread earnings that we’re going to get over the lifetimes of the policies. The European embedded value numbers we’re announcing today include those, and that gives a much better comparison with our competitors, and also lets people see the full value of the Aviva business.

When we report under MCEV, it really only recognises the profits that we’ll expect if all the financial risks of the business are hedged out. Now we expect a lot more to emerge over the lifetime of the contracts, and this is particularly for our annuity business in the UK, in Delta Lloyd and in the United States. So EEV recognises those future profits, and captures those so we can see the full value in the balance sheet of the business.

Now we’re very confident about the emergence of those, and that’s really going to be driven by two things: first, our ability to select good credit risk, and then because our assets and liabilities are well matched. And that’s really what we’ve talked about in the course of our presentation today.

Cautionary statements:
This should be read in conjunction with the documents filed by Aviva plc (the “Company” or “Aviva”) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).

This announcement contains, and we may make verbal statements containing, “forward-looking statements” with respect to certain of Aviva’s plans and current goals and expectations relating to future financial condition, performance, results, strategic initiatives and objectives.

Statements containing the words “believes"," intends”, “expects”, “plans”, “will,” “seeks”, “aims”, “may”, “could”, “outlook”, “estimates” and “anticipates”, and words of similar meaning, are forward-looking.

By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty.

Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements.

Aviva believes factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in forward-looking statements in the presentation include, but are not limited to: the impact of difficult conditions in the global capital markets and the economy generally; the impact of new government initiatives related to the financial crisis; defaults and impairments in our bond, mortgage and structured credit portfolios; changes in general economic conditions, including foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and other factors that could affect our profitability; the impact of volatility in the equity, capital and credit markets on our profitability and ability to access capital and credit; risks associated with arrangements with third parties, including joint ventures; inability of reinsurers to meet obligations or unavailability of reinsurance coverage; a decline in our ratings with Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch and A.M. Best; increased competition in the U.K. and in other countries where we have significant operations; changes to our brands and reputation; changes in assumptions in pricing and reserving for insurance business (particularly with regard to mortality and morbidity trends, lapse rates and policy renewal rates), longevity and endowments; a cyclical downturn of the insurance industry; changes in local political, regulatory and economic conditions, business risks and challenges which may impact demand for our products, our investment portfolio and credit quality of counterparties; the impact of actual experience differing from estimates on amortisation of deferred acquisition costs and acquired value of in-force business; the impact of recognising an impairment of our goodwill or intangibles with indefinite lives; changes in valuation methodologies, estimates and assumptions used in the valuation of investment securities; the effect of various legal proceedings and regulatory investigations; the impact of operational risks; the loss of key personnel; the impact of catastrophic events on our results; changes in government regulations or tax laws in jurisdictions where we conduct business; funding risks associated with our pension schemes; the effect of undisclosed liabilities, integration issues and other risks associated with our acquisitions; and the timing impact and other uncertainties relating to acquisitions and disposals and relating to other future acquisitions, combinations or disposals within relevant industries.

For a more detailed description of these risks, uncertainties and other factors, please see Item 3, “Risk Factors”, and Item 5, “Operating and Financial Review and Prospects” in Aviva’s Annual Report Form 20-F as filed with the SEC on 30 March 2010.

Aviva undertakes no obligation to update the forward looking statements in this announcement or any other forward-looking statements we may make. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are current only as of the date on which such statements are made.

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