20 January 2011: Paul Abberley, chief executive, Aviva Investors London - Economic capital management

Chief executive of Aviva Investors London talks about his analyst presentation on fixed income management.

Transcript:

Well, Pat has shown you the scope and scale of our credit exposure across the group, and also the strong track record we have in managing that credit risk. I’m going to explain the role that Aviva Investors plays in the management of that credit risk, and it’s a very close working relationship with the rest of the Aviva Group. Aviva Investors itself has a very strong track record in managing credit, and we have independently-audited track records that we can use to demonstrate that. So, where does that strength come from?

Well, there are a number of factors I draw attention to – the first is the scale of our operations, we manage over £150 billion sterling in fixed income, and over 80 billion of that is in the area of credit. Why does that scale matter?

It gives us a seat at the table. We know what’s going on in credit markets, and when we want to say something, our voice is listened to.

In addition, that scale also means that we’re looking at the markets from many different dimensions, it’s not just a case of running, long-only portfolios – we’re managing annuity-type books, LDI, DC pension and so forth – and because we’re looking through many different lenses, we see all the perspectives that are driving credit market trends, and that gives us a much better understanding of the dynamics of credit markets, and hence our ability to excel in managing that type of credit risk.

The second factor is the critical mass that we have in terms of resources. We’re showing that we have 66 investment professionals focused exclusively on credit risk.

Now not only does that human capital base give us the critical mass we need to do proprietary research, rather than having to rely on third-party suppliers of research, it also enables us to diversify the type of human capital we have; so not only do we have the traditional long-only credit managers, we have people that have worked on the sell side; we also have people that have worked in proprietary trading and, indeed, have run hedge funds.

So again we’re bringing many different perspectives, a much broader view of credit markets than one would achieve if one had a much more narrow remit. The third important factor in our success, particularly in recent years, is the fact that we’ve adapted our investment processes to take advantage of the changes in market dynamics post the credit crunch.

Two examples might suffice here – first, liquidity: prior to 2007, liquidity was a free good, you could pretty much do what you wanted in credit, with almost no transaction cost. That’s dramatically different now. We’ve adapted our investment processes to make sure that when we have good insight, we’re also able to move positions around at will.

Second example of where the processes need to be adapted is taking into account the impact of other asset classes. It’s clear now that global markets are much more interactive and move much more closely than they would have done in the past. We have a major advantage at Aviva Investors in that regard, in the sense that we’re active in many other asset classes, all of the major equity markets, plus tactical asset allocation and so forth.

Now what that means is, again from the outside in, we’re looking at credit from many different dimensions, we understand the dynamics and the impact on credit markets from what is going on in the world elsewhere in capital markets, and that’s a major advantage relative to us being, say, a very narrow credit-only shop, or indeed a pure fixed-income house. Rather than going into more detail, though, with regard to that investment process, I will be summarising a case study which demonstrates how all this comes together, and how we work with Aviva as a group.

Just over a year ago we were contemplating how to deploy the proceeds from the Delta Lloyd transaction; taking into account our risk appetite and economic capital considerations, we decided to deploy £850 million into a corporate bond portfolio, requiring considerable liquidity, we needed to be able to move out of those positions if circumstances changed. We were able to put together that portfolio, and in 2010 it was a great success.

We suffered no defaults, no ratings downgrades; whereas the sum would have thrown off a risk-free rate of about £4 million over that period, it actually returned over £34 million. And that case study shows that we are very much able to deploy the skills and resources we have in Aviva Investors across credit management group-wide, and a critical enabler here is the one Aviva approach, because it provides us with a platform where all the components of the group can work very closely. And that partnership has been demonstrably successful in the area of credit management.

Cautionary statements:
This should be read in conjunction with the documents filed by Aviva plc (the “Company” or “Aviva”) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).

This announcement contains, and we may make verbal statements containing, “forward-looking statements” with respect to certain of Aviva’s plans and current goals and expectations relating to future financial condition, performance, results, strategic initiatives and objectives. Statements containing the words “believes"," intends”, “expects”, “plans”, “will,” “seeks”, “aims”, “may”, “could”, “outlook”, “estimates” and “anticipates”, and words of similar meaning, are forward-looking.

By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty.

Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements.

Aviva believes factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in forward-looking statements in the presentation include, but are not limited to: the impact of difficult conditions in the global capital markets and the economy generally; the impact of new government initiatives related to the financial crisis; defaults and impairments in our bond, mortgage and structured credit portfolios; changes in general economic conditions, including foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and other factors that could affect our profitability; the impact of volatility in the equity, capital and credit markets on our profitability and ability to access capital and credit; risks associated with arrangements with third parties, including joint ventures; inability of reinsurers to meet obligations or unavailability of reinsurance coverage; a decline in our ratings with Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch and AM Best; increased competition in the UK and in other countries where we have significant operations; changes to our brands and reputation; changes in assumptions in pricing and reserving for insurance business (particularly with regard to mortality and morbidity trends, lapse rates and policy renewal rates), longevity and endowments; a cyclical downturn of the insurance industry; changes in local political, regulatory and economic conditions, business risks and challenges which may impact demand for our products, our investment portfolio and credit quality of counterparties; the impact of actual experience differing from estimates on amortisation of deferred acquisition costs and acquired value of in-force business; the impact of recognising an impairment of our goodwill or intangibles with indefinite lives; changes in valuation methodologies, estimates and
assumptions used in the valuation of investment securities; the effect of various legal proceedings and regulatory investigations; the impact of operational risks; the loss of key personnel; the impact of catastrophic events on our results; changes in government regulations or tax laws in jurisdictions where we conduct business; funding risks associated with our pension schemes; the effect of undisclosed liabilities, integration issues and other risks associated with our acquisitions; and the timing impact and other uncertainties relating to acquisitions and disposals and relating to other future acquisitions, combinations or disposals within relevant industries.

For a more detailed description of these risks, uncertainties and other factors, please see Item 3, “Risk Factors”, and Item 5, “Operating and Financial Review and Prospects” in Aviva’s Annual Report Form 20-F as filed with the SEC on 30 March 2010.

Aviva undertakes no obligation to update the forward looking statements in this announcement or any other forward-looking statements we may make. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are current only as of the date on which such statements are made.

 

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